中金：AI数据中心建设提速 磁悬浮压缩机迎国产替代良机

Core Insights - The construction of AI data centers is driving rapid growth in the refrigeration compressor market, with chillers being the core of refrigeration and compressors being the key components. Magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors are expected to become mainstream [1][2] Group 1: AI Data Center Growth - The AI data center refrigeration business is experiencing growth, with global computing power investment upgrades leading to significant capital expenditures from the four major cloud providers, reaching nearly $100 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 70% [1] - The increase in chip power consumption requires at least 50-120 kW per rack, leading to a higher demand for refrigeration capacity. High power, low energy consumption, and low PUE refrigeration models are becoming market targets, with liquid cooling solutions offering advantages in heat dissipation, low density, and energy efficiency, effectively reducing PUE to around 1.2 [1] Group 2: Compressor Market Dynamics - Compressors account for over 50% of chiller costs and approximately 72% of total power consumption, making them the core components of chillers. Different types of compressors correspond to varying refrigeration efficiencies and application scenarios [2] - Traditional data centers primarily use air-cooled systems with mature screw compressors, which meet the corresponding refrigeration demand. The supply side for screw compressors is relatively concentrated, with a CR5 ratio of about 86.5% [2] - The estimated power for data center racks can exceed 50 kW, and magnetic levitation centrifugal compressors are projected to save over 40% in energy consumption compared to screw compressors, making them likely to become mainstream. If all new AI data centers adopt magnetic levitation compressors, the market for magnetic levitation chillers is expected to reach approximately 28.83 billion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year growth of 70.4% [2] Group 3: Domestic vs. International Competition - Leading international manufacturers of magnetic levitation compressors, such as Danfoss, currently have full production schedules. Domestic brands are making technological breakthroughs in core components like magnetic bearings and high-speed permanent magnet motors, which may enable them to gradually achieve domestic substitution due to their relatively mature technology and higher cost-performance ratio [2]