Car Prices May Not Drop Next Year—But They May Get a Bit More Affordable. Here's Why.

Core Insights - Buying a new vehicle may become more affordable by late 2026 due to expected easing of price increases, lower borrowing costs, and new tax benefits [1][5][7] Vehicle Pricing Trends - Car prices surged approximately 9% during the pandemic, with the average new vehicle costing about $49,800 in November, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous year [2][4] - Price inflation for 2026 model-year vehicles has been above historical standards, with these vehicles making up about 60% of the current new-vehicle supply [6] Consumer Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Despite improvements in affordability since 2023, consumer sentiment remains negative regarding the timing of vehicle purchases [3][6] - Households are projected to buy 2% to 3% fewer cars in 2026 compared to 2025 [2] Financial Implications - The new tax benefit may provide typical consumers with about $50 more per month, particularly benefiting those with annual incomes up to $100,000 [5][7] - The average monthly payment for a new vehicle currently accounts for 12.8% of median income, which may decrease to 12.3% by late 2026 [6] Market Segmentation - New tax breaks are expected to support sales among middle-income households, while low-income households will likely remain unable to afford new vehicles [7][8]