November's inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here's what to expect

Core Insights - Wall Street is anticipating the release of the November consumer price index (CPI) report, which will be the first inflation reading since the end of the U.S. government shutdown [1] - Economists expect a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) projected at 3.0% [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has indicated that the report will not include one-month percent changes for November 2025 due to the cancellation of the October inflation report [2] Economic Predictions - José Torres, a senior economist, suggests that the psychological impact of inflation readings below 3% is significant, with expectations for the headline and core readings to potentially be lower than the consensus at 2.9% [3] - A 2.9% reading could create positive momentum for stocks and facilitate a "Santa Claus rally" as well as influence interest rate expectations for the following year [4] - Maintaining inflation in the twos rather than allowing it to rise to the threes would strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing and enable more interest rate cuts in the upcoming year [5]