超长债收益率迎来显著回落 年末理财配置环境有望改善

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, particularly in ultra-long government bonds, with the 30-year government bond becoming a focal point for institutional trading and analysis as the year-end policy negotiation period approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield on the 10-year government bond has risen from 1.81% in mid-November to approximately 1.85%, with a peak of 1.87%, while the 30-year government bond yield increased from 2.14% to 2.28%, reaching a yearly high [1]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the spread between the 10-year and 30-year bonds widening from 33 basis points to 43 basis points [1]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - The rise in the 30-year bond yield is attributed to a divergence in trading behaviors among institutions, particularly between banks, brokerages, and funds, reflecting deeper concerns about the macroeconomic environment and asset pricing [3]. - Brokerages have been significant net sellers, with a total net sell of 65.9 billion yuan in bonds over the period from November 20 to December 15, while funds also sold off 45.8 billion yuan during the same timeframe [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply pressure for ultra-long bonds has increased, with over 1 trillion yuan of 30-year bonds issued since 2025, a 30% increase compared to the total issuance in 2024 [4]. - The lack of sufficient buying power from banks and insurance companies has led to a "liquidation" phenomenon, where the marginal pricing power has shifted back to insurance and other institutional investors [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is focused on whether the supply-demand structure for ultra-long bonds can improve and if institutional buying capacity will increase [5]. - There is potential for a short-term stabilization in the 30-year bond risk after recent adjustments, although the overall trend remains weak [5]. - If supply pressures ease and institutional buying gradually increases, ultra-long bonds may return to stability, improving the investment environment for wealth management products [8].