光大期货：12月18日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production for the 2025/26 crushing season is projected to reach 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% compared to the previous year's 6.128 million tons [2][7] - The number of operational sugar mills has slightly increased to 478 from 477 year-on-year [2][7] - Current spot prices for new sugar in Guangxi are quoted at 5,300 to 5,400 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 10 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar is priced at 5,170 to 5,280 CNY/ton, down by 10 to 20 CNY/ton [2][7] - The main price range for processed sugar is between 5,660 to 5,900 CNY/ton, with some reductions of 10 CNY/ton [2][7] - The raw sugar market continues to exhibit a range-bound trend with no new directional signals; future focus will be on the crushing progress in Thailand and India [2][7] - Domestic spot prices are on a downward trend with average transaction volumes; futures prices have adjusted to low absolute levels, but market sentiment remains pessimistic [2][7] - The mid-term outlook for futures remains bearish, but short-term caution is advised against low-position short selling due to potential rebounds [2][7] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton prices increased by 0.57%, closing at 63.46 cents per pound, while CF601 prices decreased by 0.39% to 13,925 CNY/ton [3][8] - The main contract open interest rose by 17,680 contracts to 731,300 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index remained stable at 14,715 CNY/ton [3][8] - Macro-level disturbances persist, with Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggesting a need for interest rate cuts, albeit at a slower pace [3][8] - The dollar index and cotton prices have shown converging growth rates, while cotton export data has shown a slight decline in the week ending mid-November [3][8] - Domestic market sentiment has cooled slightly, with Zheng cotton futures prices experiencing a minor retreat [3][8] - Current supply pressures are at a peak, with short-term cotton consumption appearing stable, but sustainability of this demand is uncertain as pre-year-end replenishment needs are questioned [3][8] - Support factors include current market sentiment, recent policies, resilient demand, and high transportation costs; resistance factors include a decade-high cotton production, hedging pressures from rising prices, and the sustainability of spinning operations [3][8] - Overall, without new unexpected developments, the short-term outlook for Zheng cotton appears limited in both upward and downward movements, with a recommendation for a cautious approach [3][8]