国联民生:首予创新实业(02788)“推荐”评级 稀缺的成长型电解铝企业
智通财经网·2025-12-18 01:34

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng has initiated coverage on Chuangxin Industry (02788) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's integrated layout in energy, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, which positions it favorably in terms of energy costs in Inner Mongolia. The company is expected to benefit from the integration of green electricity, leading to further reductions in electrolytic aluminum costs. The aluminum industry is currently experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with prices expected to trend upwards [1]. Group 1: Integrated Layout and Expansion - The company focuses on the integrated smelting of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, aiming to achieve a domestic capacity of 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 3.2 million tons of alumina by mid-December 2025, with an alumina self-sufficiency rate exceeding 100% [1]. - The company plans to expand overseas by investing in a 500,000-ton aluminum industry chain project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to become a new growth driver. Funds raised from the IPO will primarily support this Saudi project and domestic green electricity initiatives [1]. Group 2: Cost Advantages and Production Capacity - The electrolytic aluminum production is located in Hohlin Gol, Inner Mongolia, where energy costs are advantageous due to abundant coal resources. The company is also constructing a wind power-based power station in Inner Mongolia to support its green transition, with green electricity costs ranging from 0.1 to 0.18 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is lower than coal power costs [2]. - The company relies on overseas purchases for bauxite, with projected alumina production from 2022 to May 2025 being 710,000 tons, 1.55 million tons, 1.54 million tons, and 660,000 tons, primarily for internal use. The electrolytic aluminum production lines are expected to operate at full capacity, with production figures of 744,000 tons, 758,000 tons, 755,000 tons, and 311,000 tons during the same period [3]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities in Saudi Arabia - In March 2025, the company, in collaboration with Innovation Group and Innovation New Materials, plans to invest in a comprehensive aluminum industry chain project in the Red Sea region of Saudi Arabia, holding a 33.6% stake in the project. The first phase of the project aims for a capacity of 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, targeting both the local Saudi market and Europe and the U.S. [4]. - The project is expected to take 18 to 24 months for construction, with production anticipated to commence in 2027. The abundant natural gas resources and low electricity costs in Saudi Arabia are expected to significantly enhance the company's performance post-launch [4].

Guolian Minsheng Sec-国联民生:首予创新实业(02788)“推荐”评级 稀缺的成长型电解铝企业 - Reportify