华泰期货：石油沥青上涨，底部信号出现了？

Core Viewpoint - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract BU2602 rising by 3.58% as of the afternoon close [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The rebound in crude oil prices after a period of decline has alleviated pressure on downstream chemical products [1] - The recent release of winter storage demand has provided a supportive signal for asphalt prices, although further stimulus factors are needed for a bottom rebound [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The situation in Venezuela has escalated, with the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, leading to a marginal tightening of Venezuelan oil shipments and a slight recovery in asphalt discounts [1] - Despite a previous high level of imports, there is currently no short-term shortage of raw materials; however, a prolonged crisis in Venezuela could hinder domestic refineries' access to raw materials, pushing asphalt cost centers higher [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the situation in Venezuela and the temporary lack of raw material shortages for domestic refineries, the recent price increase is more driven by market sentiment [1] - Caution is advised against excessive speculation, and attention should be paid to emerging bottom signals in the spot market, suggesting a strategy of low-cost accumulation or hedging [1]