长春今冬降雪明显偏少 气象部门称属局地气候异常

Core Viewpoint - The winter snowfall in Changchun and central-western Jilin Province is significantly below average, attributed to weak cold air and insufficient moisture transport, which is classified as a local climate anomaly rather than an El Niño effect [1][2]. Summary by Sections Snowfall Data - From November 1 to December 15, the average precipitation in Jilin Province was 15.7 millimeters, which is 37% less than the average for the same period, marking it as the 7th least snowy year since 2000, the 2nd least since 2010, and the least since 2020 [2]. Climate Conditions - The formation of snowfall requires the interaction of cold air and warm moist air. This year, the overall strength of cold air affecting Northeast China has been weak and moves quickly, making it difficult to establish a sustained low-temperature environment [2]. - The primary moisture source for Changchun's winter is the North Pacific and the westerly wind belt. However, this year, a dominant northerly airflow has blocked warm moist air, leading to insufficient moisture even when cold air is present [2]. El Niño and La Niña Effects - Since September, the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been persistently low, entering a La Niña state in November, but not reaching the criteria for a La Niña event. The current La Niña state has mainly resulted in increased temperature fluctuations in Northeast China and has suppressed moisture transport to the region, contributing to reduced precipitation [2]. Historical Context - Historically, December is a month with relatively low snowfall in Jilin Province, with some years experiencing no snow at all throughout the month. Therefore, the current "poor snow" phenomenon is not unprecedented [2]. Future Weather Forecast - From December 17 to 26, Jilin Province is expected to experience three precipitation events, with varying snowfall amounts across regions. Despite a slight increase in average precipitation over the next ten days, the snowfall amounts in the central-western regions are expected to remain low [4]. - The meteorological department has advised that the lack of snow may impact agricultural production, water resource management, ecological environment, and forest fire prevention. Recommendations include enhancing water resource management and preparing for agricultural irrigation [4].