金价两年翻倍高位震荡 多家机构料冲5000美元新高

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices currently around $4,327.23 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.23%. Analysts predict that gold prices could reach a historical high of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank purchases and increasing investor demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have doubled over the past two years, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [1]. - Analysts from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, forecast a bullish outlook for gold, with prices expected to exceed $4,600 by the end of Q1 2024 and potentially surpass $5,000 by Q4 2026 [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors such as the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, efforts to reduce the current account deficit, and a relatively weak dollar are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and trade disputes, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are also supporting gold's value [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish sentiment for gold, with key support levels identified between $4,266 and $4,275, which have successfully halted downward trends [3]. - The immediate resistance level is noted around $4,350, with a more significant resistance zone between $4,380 and $4,385, which could impact future price movements [3].