泉果基金赵诣：储能产业基本面仍有较强持续性

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing significant market fluctuations, with optimistic expectations for demand and supply in the coming year, driven by supportive policies and a clearer business model for independent energy storage [1][2]. Demand Side - The introduction of independent energy storage policies and shared electricity pricing has led to a 2-3 times growth in independent energy storage [1]. - The domestic renewable energy consumption issue must be addressed through energy storage, as current renewable energy installations are close to 40%, but actual generation is only 20%, indicating a high long-term demand for energy storage [2]. - The demand for energy storage is also surging in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. due to structural electricity shortages driven by AI developments and in Europe due to challenges in renewable energy consumption [2]. Supply Side - The past three years have seen profits in the renewable energy sector not favoring upstream companies, leading to weakened balance sheets and a lack of funds for capacity expansion [2]. - A tight supply situation for upstream materials, including lithium carbonate, is expected, which will help restore the financial health of these companies and enable them to gradually expand capacity to meet future demand [2]. Market Dynamics - The current energy storage market is characterized by a dual impact of demand and supply, with a strong sustainability in the fundamentals, potentially leading to a market explosion similar to that of 2019-2020 [3]. - Recent market fluctuations in lithium carbonate and lithium batteries are primarily driven by funding factors, with concerns about concentrated trading and profit-taking leading to adjustments in the sector [3]. - Despite potential minor adjustments, the probability of a significant downturn is low due to a strong supply-demand balance and a robust demand outlook [3]. Investment Opportunities - The most investment-worthy segments in the energy storage supply chain are those facing the tightest supply, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, separators, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate, which are expected to exceed expectations [4]. - The supply chain dynamics indicate that upstream material segments are gaining increasing attention, and the focus should be on the most constrained supply areas [5].