每经热评 | 多措并举应对美国财政收支风险带来的负面影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imbalance in the U.S. fiscal structure exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies, highlighting the negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies [1][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In FY2025, U.S. federal revenue is projected at $5.2 trillion, while expenditures are expected to reach $7.01 trillion, resulting in a budget deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion [1]. - Personal income tax remains the primary source of revenue at $2.66 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. Tariff revenues have surged significantly, indicating a shift towards reliance on tariffs rather than personal income taxes [1][2]. Expenditure Trends - Major expenditures are concentrated in mandatory spending areas such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, with debt interest payments surpassing $1 trillion [1]. - The U.S. Department of Education's budget is set to drastically decrease from $268 billion in FY2024 to $34 billion in FY2025, significantly impacting public schools and educational programs reliant on federal funding [3]. Economic Impacts - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. are expected to increase costs for import-dependent businesses, contributing to inflation and potentially harming the international competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [3]. - The fiscal strategy of using tariffs to cover budget deficits may lead to efficiency losses and worsen the economic situation for many American residents [3]. Global Trade and Supply Chain Effects - The implementation of the "America First" strategy and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, leading to significant changes in the fiscal structure [4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is anticipated, with a trend towards regionalization and localization, which may increase costs for businesses adapting to policy changes [4]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. debt sustainability issue is becoming critical, with debt interest payments projected to account for about 3.4% of GDP in FY2025, raising concerns about potential debt defaults that could threaten Chinese holdings of U.S. dollar assets [5]. - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. are likely to increase costs for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market, resulting in a significant decline in trade, with Chinese exports to the U.S. dropping by 17% and imports by 12% in the first ten months of 2025 [5]. Strategic Recommendations - To mitigate negative impacts, it is suggested that China maintain stable global supply chains and engage in tax competition while enhancing economic cooperation with ASEAN countries [6]. - The establishment of an open economic system driven by domestic demand is recommended, alongside active government investment in strategic industries and infrastructure [7]. - Improving the fiscal structure and enhancing tax systems to attract high-income individuals while ensuring financial sustainability is also advised [7].