欧元震荡欧央行决议成催化剂

Core Viewpoint - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently at 1.1737, with market focus on the European Central Bank's (ECB) last monetary policy meeting of 2025, amid uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's policy path and diverging economic data between Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - The ECB is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2%, with a possibility of raising economic growth forecasts [1] - Market expectations have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike rising to 40% and a 50% chance of a rate increase by the end of 2026 [1] - The eurozone economy has shown unexpected resilience, with Q3 GDP growth of 0.3% exceeding market expectations and November core inflation stabilizing at 2.4% [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Insights - The Fed has completed its third 25 basis point rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%, with expectations of continued easing in 2026 [2] - Mixed signals from the Fed regarding interest rate stability have limited the dollar's decline, affecting the euro's upward momentum [2] - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates slowing recovery, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping significantly and unemployment rising to 4.6%, creating downward pressure on the dollar [2] Group 3: Euro's Short-term Outlook - Despite a strong short-term outlook for the euro, potential risks include a high nominal exchange rate impacting export competitiveness and warnings from Barclays about the euro's actual strength being at elevated levels [3] - Technically, the euro has broken above the 1.15-1.17 range, with support levels at 1.1720-1.1730 and resistance at 1.1780-1.1800 [3] - A hawkish signal from ECB President Lagarde could push the euro above 1.1800, while concerns about the euro's strength could lead to a test of the 1.1700 support level [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The euro to dollar exchange rate will continue to be influenced by the diverging monetary policy paths of the ECB and the Fed [4] - If the ECB begins a rate hike cycle while the Fed maintains easing, the narrowing interest rate differential could drive the euro higher [4] - Other factors such as the pace of eurozone economic recovery, changes in U.S. tariff policies, and global geopolitical risks will also be critical in determining exchange rate movements [4]