英行降息大考来袭多空博弈曝光

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to weak economic indicators [1] - The UK economy shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, which supports the expectation of monetary easing [1] - The recent PMI data provided short-term support for the pound, but most institutions believe it will not alter the rate cut trajectory [1] Group 2 - The UK autumn budget introduced a £22 billion fiscal buffer, which helped reduce short positions on the pound and pushed the exchange rate above 1.335 [2] - The tightening policies in the budget may constrain economic growth, and the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank of England's target [2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts for the pound, with some predicting a slight decline due to economic pressures and rate cuts, while others see potential for a short-term rebound if rate cuts are less than expected [2] Group 3 - The exchange rate is currently balanced, with short-term fluctuations expected between 1.3350 and 1.3380, with key support at 1.3350 and resistance at 1.3400 [2] - The long-term outlook for the pound depends on the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, as well as the recovery of the UK economy and fiscal conditions [2] - Global capital flows and other variables are also important factors to consider in the pound's valuation [2]