全球“水龙头”再开？沪金获强

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold in Shanghai has been rising since December 10, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve, global fiscal expansion trends, and actual gold purchases by central banks [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm employment in November exceeded expectations, but the previous value declined, raising concerns about a weakening labor market as the unemployment rate increased [3]. - The Federal Reserve began purchasing $40 billion in bonds monthly from December 12 to bolster bank reserves, with plans to gradually reduce this to $20-25 billion in response to natural balance sheet expansion and liquidity gaps from quantitative tightening [3]. - Global fiscal expansion is evident, with the U.S. "Build Back Better" plan raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and increasing the deficit by $3.4 trillion; Japan approved a stimulus of ¥21.3 trillion (approximately $135.4 billion); and the UK's fiscal buffer expanded to £22 billion, with net borrowing for the fiscal year 2025-2026 adjusted to £138.3 billion [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, which could weaken the low-interest rate advantage and lead to a return of funds from pensions and insurance, potentially reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries and impacting markets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies [3]. - There is a caution regarding the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing in January 2026, which may lower the weight of gold and silver, leading to potential technical selling by passive funds and short-term pressure on these metals [4]. - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, global fiscal easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, while short-term concerns include the reversal of carry trades and index rebalancing [4]. Group 3: Gold Futures Analysis - Shanghai gold futures are showing a bullish trend, breaking through key resistance levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bullish arrangement and MACD indicators showing continued bullish momentum [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with prices approaching the upper band, and the RSI indicator is in a neutral to strong area, reflecting cautious optimism in market sentiment [5]. - Key support is noted at 976 yuan per gram, with resistance around 983 yuan per gram; a breakthrough of resistance could open up further upward movement, while a pullback may test support [5].