中金2026年食品饮料展望：筑底接近尾声 聚焦高质量增长

Group 1 - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2023, with a weak overall consumption environment and a continued trend towards high quality-price ratio, functionality, health, and emotional consumption [1] - The demand for the liquor industry remains weak, compounded by new regulations leading to significant adjustments on both supply and demand sides, while the performance of mass-market food shows divergence, with beverages and snacks exhibiting better conditions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the industry is expected to continue a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying more on product innovation, fragmented channel layouts, and expanding consumer demographics [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is anticipated to see improvements in financial reports, with a potential turning point in the first half of 2026, as demand-side policy impacts are expected to diminish [2] - Consumer scenarios are projected to gradually recover from significant suppression, with potential consumption policy stimuli driving demand, leading to a year-on-year positive change starting in the first half of the year [2] - The overall demand for mass-market food is stabilizing at low levels, with sub-industry performance showing divergence, and trends towards quality-price ratio, health, and emotional value consumption continuing [2]