摩根资产管理市场快评：美股短期调整，科技板块或将回归基本面

Market Overview - The US stock market continued its recent downward trend on December 17, 2025, with major indices under pressure. The S&P 500 index fell approximately 1.2% to close at 6721.43 points, the Dow Jones index decreased by about 0.5% to 47885.97 points, and the Nasdaq index experienced a larger decline of about 1.8% to 22693.32 points [1][5]. Sector Performance - The technology and AI-related sectors were the main contributors to the market's decline, as concerns about long-term returns, capital expenditure intensity, and sustainable financing in the AI industry intensified. High-valuation tech stocks, particularly in chips, software, and cloud infrastructure, faced significant pressure, impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices [1][5]. - In contrast, the energy sector showed relative resilience, supported by a rebound in oil prices due to geopolitical factors. Defensive and traditional industrial companies also maintained stable stock prices, indicating a shift in investor preference towards valuation and cash flow support in a high-volatility environment [1][5]. Market Drivers - The decline in the US stock market was driven by three main factors: 1. A renewed pullback in the technology and AI themes, as investors became more cautious in evaluating the return on investment and future profitability paths, leading to capital outflows from high-valuation growth assets [2][6]. 2. Ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic and policy environment, including the pace of inflation improvement, future policy directions, and geopolitical risks, which made market participants more conservative in their outlook for the US economy and corporate earnings [2][6]. 3. Technical and funding factors, where the market entered an adjustment phase after a previous rebound, leading to increased profit-taking and risk-control trading behaviors, which amplified the downward movement of the indices [2][6]. Structural Opportunities - The market structure indicated that the number of declining stocks significantly outnumbered advancing stocks, with active trading skewed towards selling. There was a noticeable shift in capital flow from tech and high-beta assets to energy, defensive, and some value assets, reflecting a transition from a single-theme-driven market to one that emphasizes fundamentals, valuations, and risk control [3][7]. - Looking ahead, the US stock market may remain in a phase of revaluation and emotional recovery. The future performance of the tech and AI sectors will likely depend on corporate capital expenditure rhythms, profitability realization capabilities, and marginal changes in the financing environment. If macro data shows limited improvement or policy statements remain cautious, the volatility of high-valuation assets may continue to be elevated [3][7].