杨德龙：2026年美联储可能降息两次 中国央行有望适时降息降准

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates twice in 2026, driven by rising unemployment rates and economic slowdown [1][7] - The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, which is likely to influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][6] - Following the release of the non-farm employment data, traders are betting on a reduction of the benchmark interest rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1][6] Group 2 - The acceleration of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is primarily in response to a cooling job market, with revisions showing a decline in non-farm payrolls [7] - Economic indicators, such as retail sales remaining flat in October, suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, raising concerns among economists [7] - The Fed's actions may set a precedent for other central banks globally, potentially leading to a broader trend of rate cuts [7] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, reflecting confidence in achieving stable inflation targets [8][9] - The anticipated rate hike by the Bank of Japan could strengthen the yen, but market reactions will depend on the forward guidance provided by the central bank [8][9] - The potential for further rate increases exists, as current rates remain low compared to other major economies, despite inflation being stable [9] Group 4 - The Chinese central bank is likely to adopt a flexible monetary policy, including potential rate cuts, to support the capital market amid global monetary easing [7][10] - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting traditional industries while also supporting technological innovation sectors, which could create new investment opportunities [10] - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to last for several years, driven by sectors such as technology, new energy, and consumer goods [9][10]