全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）涨超0.7%，煤价企稳预期支撑板块表现

Group 1 - The reasonable lower limit for the price of Q5500 thermal coal at ports should be above 620 CNY/ton from a cost perspective [1] - In the first half of 2025, the profit per ton of raw coal for large-scale enterprises is expected to drop to 60 CNY/ton, while the total cost will rise to 615 CNY/ton, an increase of 50-100 CNY/ton compared to 2018-2020 [1] - The weighted average total cost of coal per ton for 10 listed thermal coal companies is projected to increase from 266 CNY/ton in 2020 to 361 CNY/ton in 2024, indicating limited room for further cost reduction due to rising cost rigidity [1] Group 2 - The average price of Q5500 at Qinhuangdao Port in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 676 CNY/ton, which is close to the current benchmark price of 675 CNY/ton, with profits slightly shifting towards the power sector [1] - If a reasonable profit distribution pattern is maintained, the benchmark price may need to be slightly adjusted upwards [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1]