张津镭:多因素共振推升避险 黄金高位整理不改上行底色

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a bullish fluctuation on December 18, with prices reaching a high of $4348 before closing at $4337, indicating a small upward trend despite market uncertainties driven by geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes [1][6]. Market Analysis - Gold prices showed a rebound during the Asian session, testing support around $4300 before recovering [1][6] - The announcement by President Trump to "block" all oil tankers entering or leaving sanctioned Venezuela has heightened market uncertainty, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments [1][6] - The Federal Reserve's recent purchase of short-term government bonds, amounting to approximately $40 billion, is interpreted as a new form of quantitative easing, which is expected to suppress the dollar and alter the attractiveness of holding non-yielding gold assets [1][6] Technical Analysis - The gold market remains within a previously predicted triangular range, with potential resistance at $4340-$4350 and support around $4315-$4310 [2][7] - A failure to maintain above the 5-day moving average could lead to further testing of lower support levels at $4290 and possibly $4270 [2][7] - The market is currently in an "event-driven" mode, suggesting caution against blindly chasing highs or attempting to predict tops [2][7] Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at $4322-$4320 with a stop loss at $4310 and a target of $4350-$4360, while considering short positions if prices drop below $4300 [3][8] Key Economic Events - Important economic data to be released includes the U.S. November CPI report and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, both scheduled for December 18 at 21:30 [4][9]