成本端支撑逐步显现 纯碱期货盘面延续偏强走势

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market continues to show a strong trend, with the main contract reaching 1192.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.05% [1] Industry Summary - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 0.005 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.33% [2] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.386 million tons (including some external warehouse inventories), which is an increase of 0.012 million tons from December 11, with a growth rate of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among this, the heavy soda ash inventory is 644,000 tons, which has decreased by 0.002 million tons, a decline of 0.3% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure that is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force remains limited. Without significant changes in the supply-demand structure, prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a cautious approach recommended towards rebound trends [4] - According to Wukuang Futures, as enterprises resume production and new capacity in the Alashan region is expected to be released, market supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with procurement mainly focused on just-in-time inventory replenishment, leading to low stocking willingness. Additionally, increased cold repairs in glass production lines further suppress demand for soda ash. In the short term, without significant positive stimuli, soda ash prices are expected to remain under pressure [4]