供需过剩矛盾尚难缓解 PVC期货价格反弹空间受限

Market Overview - The PVC market in East China has seen price increases, with calcium carbide method prices ranging from 4380 to 4470 CNY/ton and ethylene method prices around 4450 to 4650 CNY/ton [1] - The PVC operating rate is at 78.4%, a decrease of 0.6%, ending a three-week increase, with ethylene facilities resuming operations and calcium carbide method facilities reducing output, equivalent to the shutdown of a 500,000-ton capacity [1] - Current inventory levels are transitioning to depletion, with social inventory statistics showing a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week to 1.0593 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 27.63% [1] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that the main contract is experiencing a strong continuation, with a resurgence of anti-involution sentiment and overall strength in domestic commodities. However, high inventory levels and weak demand during the seasonal off-peak period are creating supply-demand imbalances that are difficult to resolve before concentrated maintenance occurs in the upstream and midstream sectors [3] - The recent decline in chlor-alkali prices and cash flow losses in self-sufficient calcium carbide facilities in Northwest China are points of concern, with a strategy of holding light long positions in the short term and waiting for continued inventory depletion for potential buying opportunities in the medium to long term [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlights ongoing pressure from new capacity additions, with the market facing high operating rates, high inventory, and weak demand, limiting the rebound potential of futures prices. Despite recent policy support leading to a slight rebound in undervalued prices, the overall market remains in a low-level oscillation pattern [3]