市场看涨情绪依旧高涨 沪银期货持续刷新历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market, particularly silver, is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 18, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 1539.0 yuan/kg, reaching a high of 1587.5 yuan and a low of 1532.0 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 4.07% [1]. - The silver market is showing a strong upward trend, with the Ag2602 contract expected to fluctuate between 14900 yuan/kg and 15900 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, as indicated by Governor Waller, provide a favorable environment for silver, with a forecast of 50 to 100 basis points of rate cuts due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's sanctions on Venezuela and upcoming meetings between U.S. and Russian officials, are contributing to market volatility and sentiment [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for silver indicates a high-level consolidation with an overbought RSI, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised margin requirements to curb speculation, leading to increased profit-taking pressure [2]. - Key support levels for silver are identified between 14600 and 14800 yuan/kg, with recommendations for medium to long-term positions to be built on dips while maintaining caution in the short term [2].