张明：2026年全球黄金价格走势展望

Core Viewpoint - There is a possibility of a significant adjustment in global gold prices in the first half of 2026, potentially declining by 10% to 20% [1] Group 1: Historical Price Trends - From December 30, 2024, to December 10, 2025, the LBMA gold price in the UK rose from $2,609.10 per ounce to $4,200.15 per ounce, marking a 61% increase, making it the best-performing asset class globally in 2025 [1] - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,294.35 per ounce on October 20, 2025, before experiencing an 8% decline to $3,948.50 per ounce on October 28, 2025, and then fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200 [1] Group 2: Inflation and Gold Prices - Historically, gold prices have been viewed as a hedge against inflation, with a long-term average ratio of gold prices to the U.S. CPI index at 3.2 times [2] - Currently, this ratio is close to 6 times, indicating a significant deviation from historical averages, which raises the probability of a price correction in the future [2] Group 3: Correlation with Risk Assets - Traditionally, gold prices are expected to have a negative correlation with mainstream risk assets, but both the S&P 500 index and gold prices have shown significant increases since Q4 2022 [4] - The future relationship between gold and equities remains uncertain, raising questions about which asset may adjust first if a divergence occurs [4] Group 4: Interest Rates and Gold Prices - The theoretical relationship suggests that gold prices should negatively correlate with interest rates; however, recent years have shown a lack of significant correlation [7] - For instance, despite a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields from 0.5% to over 4% between late 2020 and mid-2023, gold prices remained relatively stable [7] Group 5: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Gold prices are positively correlated with global economic policy uncertainty, particularly following significant policy changes, such as the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration [10] - Despite a decrease in the global economic policy uncertainty index and geopolitical risk index, gold prices have remained high, suggesting potential for a significant correction if conditions do not worsen [11] Group 6: Dollar Influence on Gold Prices - Gold prices are primarily traded in U.S. dollars, leading to a historical negative correlation with the dollar index; however, this relationship has varied over time [13] - In 2025, despite a 10% depreciation of the dollar index, gold prices surged by 60%, indicating that dollar fluctuations are not the primary driver of gold price changes [13] Group 7: Future Predictions - The baseline prediction suggests that the probability of significant escalation in trade tensions before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections is low, which may lead to a stable dollar index between 95 and 100 [17] - If these conditions hold, a significant adjustment in gold prices may occur in the first half of 2026, unless unexpected geopolitical conflicts arise or trade policies are reintroduced [17]