日本央行年内最后一次议息会议在即，高市早苗还在施压？

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between the government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes has resurfaced, with warnings against premature tightening of monetary policy [1][3] Group 1: Government and Monetary Policy - Masazumi Wakatabe, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, emphasized the need for fiscal policy and growth strategies to raise the neutral interest rate before considering rate hikes [3] - The Kishida administration is advocating for a fiscal stimulus approach to enhance economic capacity rather than excessive tightening of fiscal policy [5] - The Bank of Japan has previously avoided using "neutral interest rate" as a primary communication tool for future rate hike paths, focusing instead on the impact of past rate increases on economic activities [3][6] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Concerns - Wakatabe holds a moderate view on inflation, suggesting that inflation may slow down and could even fall below 2% due to easing energy and food costs [3] - The Japanese government approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen to support the economic stimulus plan, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new bond issuance [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy, with predictions that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 215% to 230% by around 2030 if deficits remain at 2.5% of GDP [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds is expected to rise to 2.1% by the end of 2026 and 2.3% by the end of 2027, higher than previous forecasts [6] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates that the interest on debt will increase from 7.9 trillion yen last year to 16.1 trillion yen by 2028, raising concerns about whether economic growth can cover the rising interest costs [7] - Kishida responded to concerns about fiscal discipline by stating that the government envisions "strategic fiscal spending" rather than reckless expansion [7]