矿业ETF（561330）涨超0.7%，工业金属供需格局引关注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts leading to a temporary decline in aluminum prices, global aluminum inventory remains low at 1.2 to 1.25 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for the next 2-3 years, which may support aluminum prices [1] - Overseas projects are experiencing production cuts due to power issues, and the slow release of additional supply from Indonesia may contribute to the sustained low inventory levels [1] - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high for the year, suggesting that aluminum still has room for price increases, especially if production cuts occur in the U.S. due to electricity shortages [1] Group 2 - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry is approximately 5,500 yuan per ton, and with the decline in alumina prices, industry profits are expected to remain high [1] - Cash flow for electrolytic aluminum companies is continuously recovering, leading to improved profit stability, and future capital expenditure intensity is expected to be low, highlighting the dividend asset attributes of the sector [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, indicating the cyclical nature of the industry [1]