正信期货黄益：纯碱供需过剩预期未改，市场驱动有限

Core Viewpoint - The pressure on soda ash remains, primarily influenced by supply-side factors, with new capacity expected to impact the market next year. Overall valuation of soda ash is not high, and the possibility of a significant correction is limited, with expectations hovering at the bottom [1][10]. Group 1: Inventory Pressure - As of December 18, soda ash plant inventory stands at 1.4993 million tons, with upstream inventory continuing to increase throughout the year. Seasonal inventory reduction occurred during maintenance periods, but overall inventory changes are more about transfer rather than consumption [1][5]. - Downstream inventory levels are low, with glass manufacturers maintaining around 21 days of raw material inventory and 35 days in transit. The expectation for replenishment before the Spring Festival may be limited due to the current inventory situation [1][5]. Group 2: Supply Levels - New capacities from companies like Far East and Yuntu Holdings are expected to come online in December, with gradual ramp-up in Q1 next year. The soda ash industry is in a peak operational season, and supply is expected to remain ample, with production projected to reach 37.9 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 2% [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly production of soda ash is 721,400 tons, and this level is expected to be maintained in the short term [5]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In the float glass industry, daily melting volume is correlated with profitability, with an expected annual glass production of 57.65 million tons, a decrease of about 6.3% year-on-year. The current market policies have not significantly impacted the glass industry, and future demand may weaken due to declining construction activity [6][7]. - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a slowdown in new production plans, with daily melting volume at 88,700 tons as of December 12. The expected production for photovoltaic glass in 2025 is projected to decrease by about 12% year-on-year [7]. Group 4: Conclusion - The soda ash market continues to face pressure, primarily from supply-side factors, with high upstream inventory expected to persist. The market is likely to experience localized disturbances due to changes in head-end operations, and speculative demand may arise intermittently [10]. - The recent price drop has led to a slight rebound in market sentiment, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains, limiting sustained market drivers. The medium-term outlook is to adopt a bearish stance on rebounds until significant supply reductions are observed [10].