平安医疗健康混合基金经理周思聪：从“全球化元年”到“价值兑现”，2026年中国创新药配置窗口或将开启

Core Insights - The year 2025 is viewed as the "globalization year" for China's biotech sector, with BD transaction volumes and values expected to significantly exceed those of 2024, prompting a reevaluation of innovative drug assets [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Global recognition of asset quality: Multinational pharmaceutical companies are increasingly viewing China not just as a sales market but as a core source for R&D pipelines [1] - Reconstruction of cash flow models: Large upfront payments are improving the balance sheets of biotech companies, allowing them to maintain high R&D investments without relying on equity financing during capital downturns [1] - Establishment of differentiated competitive advantages: Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies have formed a "group army" advantage in cutting-edge fields like bispecific antibodies and ADCs, demonstrating global Best-in-Class R&D capabilities [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The understanding of BD transactions is shifting from "one-time income" to "long-term revenue sharing expectations," with industry valuation logic expected to transition from PS (Price-to-Sales) to PE (Price-to-Earnings) [1] - The current state of the innovative drug sector shows improving fundamentals due to the onset of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the confirmation of moderate domestic medical insurance negotiations, and the ongoing international expansion of innovative drugs [2] - Despite a significant rebound, the valuation of the innovative drug sector remains at historical low levels [3] Group 3: Future Catalysts - The market is expected to enter a stable upward channel characterized by dual increases in performance and valuation in 2026, with key catalytic phases identified [3] - The sentiment recovery phase (late December 2025 - January 2026) is anticipated to be marked by the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where numerous Chinese pharmaceutical companies are expected to disclose new clinical data and BD cooperation intentions [3] - The performance verification phase (Q1 - Q2 2026) will focus on two key indicators: whether BD upfront payments are recognized as revenue and the sales growth of core innovative drugs [3] - The valuation reshaping phase (second half of 2026) will see the first overseas Phase III clinical results from Chinese innovative drugs, potentially marking the emergence of China's first overseas marketed innovative drugs [4] Group 4: Investment Focus - The current adjustment in China's A-share and H-share innovative drug markets is nearly complete, with the industry at a historic turning point from "following innovation" to "global leadership" [4] - Future investment focus will be on leading innovative pharmaceutical companies with global intellectual property, differentiated clinical value, and strong cash flow, seizing historical opportunities for industrial upgrades and value reassessment [4]