确定欧盟猪肉反倾销事实，对2026年中国猪肉进口量影响几何？

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of anti-dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the EU, effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% [2][12][13] - The anti-dumping investigation began on June 17, 2024, with preliminary findings released on September 5, 2025, indicating dumping practices by EU exporters, leading to the requirement for importers to pay a deposit [13][15] - Following the announcement of the final ruling, the market showed limited bullish expectations, and pork prices remained stable, with a noted increase in import costs prior to the ruling [2][6] Group 2 - Domestic pork prices began to rise in late June 2024, influenced by the anti-dumping investigation, with significant price increases observed in various pork products [4][15] - By September 2025, despite rising import costs, domestic pork prices declined, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream customers, with only certain EU pork products experiencing price increases [4][15] - As of December 17, 2025, average prices for imported pork products showed a slight decline, indicating a stable market despite the new duties [5][16] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties is expected to significantly reduce EU pork imports in 2026, while domestic pork supply is anticipated to increase, leading to lower prices for domestic products [6][17] - The EU is projected to remain the largest source of pork imports for China, despite a significant decline in import volumes, with estimates suggesting a drop to 780,000 to 850,000 tons for pork and 1.1 to 1.2 million tons for pork by-products in 2026 [8][19] - The market is likely to shift towards sourcing from lower-cost regions such as North and South America, as domestic prices remain competitive [19][20]