关注点从地缘局势转向宏观压力与产业过剩 原油价格四日连跌刷新近五年低点

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from geopolitical issues to macroeconomic pressures and industrial oversupply, leading to a significant decline in crude oil prices in December 2023, with prices reaching their lowest levels since March 2021 [2][9]. Group 1: Price Trends - From December 11 to 16, crude oil prices fell for four consecutive days, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices dropping by $3.29 and $3.19 per barrel, respectively, representing declines of 5.29% and 5.46% [2][9]. - As of December 16, WTI and Brent crude prices were at $58.92 and $55.27 per barrel, marking a near five-year low [2][9]. - The overall expectation for the fourth quarter is a gradual downward shift in crude oil prices, following a trend of weak fluctuations in October and November [2][9]. Group 2: 2025 Market Outlook - The international oil market is expected to experience high volatility in 2025, influenced by various factors including Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, leading to a downward trend in oil prices with potential for intermittent rebounds [3][10]. - In the first five months of 2025, oil prices are projected to decline significantly from $80 to $60 per barrel due to increased concerns over macroeconomic conditions and oversupply [3][10]. - By June 2025, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may cause oil prices to fluctuate between $60 and $80 per barrel, with a price differential exceeding $10 [3][10]. Group 3: Fourth Quarter Dynamics - In the fourth quarter of 2023, the lack of positive news and ongoing geopolitical tensions have contributed to a downward trend in oil prices, with prices testing levels around $60 and $55 per barrel [4][11]. - Despite macroeconomic pressures and oversupply concerns, geopolitical issues have somewhat mitigated the decline in oil prices [4][11]. Group 4: Short-term and Long-term Risks - Short-term oil prices may see a slight rebound due to heightened geopolitical risks in South America, but the long-term outlook remains bearish due to persistent macroeconomic pressures and oversupply [6][13]. - The geopolitical support for oil prices may not be sustainable, as actual production levels in affected regions are relatively low, and easing tensions could further alleviate market concerns [7][14]. - The combination of macroeconomic pressures, including trade disputes and high interest rates, alongside slow global oil demand growth, is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on oil prices [7][14].