日本加息即将“靴子落地”！未来利率走向成谜，市场神经紧绷

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting on December 19, 2023, in response to persistent inflation and a weak yen, marking the first rate hike since early 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Analysts predict the Bank of Japan will increase the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, potentially reaching the highest loan rates in 30 years [1][2]. - The anticipated rate hike is part of Governor Ueda's plan to move away from years of ultra-loose monetary policy, with further signals of potential tightening expected [1][3]. - The market is looking for clues regarding the normalization path for monetary policy into 2026, beyond the immediate rate hike [1][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's consumer price index (CPI) data for November is expected to show ongoing price pressures, reinforcing the need for monetary tightening [2][8]. - Stable wage growth over the past two years is also a significant factor driving the rate hike, with the next increase anticipated in April 2026 [9]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The yen has recently weakened, which is a critical consideration for the Bank of Japan's decision-making, as currency depreciation impacts inflation, particularly for imported goods [2][11]. - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar reached a 10-month high in late November but has since retreated, with market expectations for further strengthening if the Bank of Japan signals a more hawkish stance [12]. - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of 3% recently, influenced by increased expectations of a rate hike, particularly affecting export-oriented stocks [13]. Group 4: Government Spending and Fiscal Policy - Prime Minister Kishida's plans for increased government spending and relaxed fiscal conditions are under scrutiny, with doubts about the government's ability to finance an 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD) spending plan [5][12]. - The market's reaction to fiscal policy changes will be crucial in shaping investor confidence and the overall economic outlook [11].