Stifel：美国防预算迎“无人机元年”，2026年将成行业拐点，这些标的或成赢家

Core Insights - The U.S. defense industry is at a turning point, with a significant shift towards unmanned systems expected by 2026, termed the "Year of Drones" [1] - The growth in unmanned systems spending is driven by technological advancements, escalating geopolitical threats, and new political will following recent government changes [1] Historical Context - The current defense landscape is compared to the state of manned aircraft in 1935, where unmanned systems currently represent only a small percentage of the defense budget [2] - The report predicts that unmanned systems will become a major growth area in the budget, similar to how manned aircraft dominated by 1955 [2] Political Drivers - Significant legislative and executive actions in 2025 are laying the groundwork for this transition, including multiple executive orders from President Trump focusing on defense procurement modernization and enhancing U.S. drone capabilities [3] - The "Great Beautiful Act," signed into law on July 4, allocates billions for drone infrastructure, including $2.1 billion for medium unmanned surface vessels [3] Market Dynamics - The government aims to rebuild a "mid-tier defense supplier base," warning that traditional contractors may suffer if they do not adapt to new demands for rapid and scalable production [5] - Companies with "manufacturing adaptability" and business integration capabilities are expected to emerge as long-term winners in this evolving landscape [5] Preferred Stocks - Pure play stock recommendations include Kratos Defense (KTOS.US), Ondas (ONDS.US), and AeroVironment (AVAV.US) [6] - Diversified stock recommendations include Teledyne (TDY.US), CACI International (CACI.US), and Leidos (LDOS.US) [7] Key Technology Areas - Several sub-markets are expected to grow rapidly, including $1.5 billion for loitering munitions, $1.5 billion for unmanned underwater vehicles, and $1.3 billion for counter-drone systems [8] - Collaborative combat aircraft are designed to work alongside F-35 and F-47 fighters, creating a "disposable scale" where the loss of a drone is tactical rather than strategic [9] - The U.S. is accelerating procurement of loitering munitions influenced by the Ukraine war, with projects like LASSO funding systems such as the "Spring Knife" [9] - The Navy is shifting to "single-mission hulls" to reduce costs, including the MASC project for surface vessels and the "Ghost Shark" project for large unmanned underwater vehicles [9] - A wave of contracts is expected to protect venues during the 2026 World Cup from drone threats, funded by new allocations from the Department of Homeland Security [9] - Despite perceptions of high valuations based on current P/E ratios, the report emphasizes that the industry is in the early stages of a transformative shift towards unmanned systems [9]