Stock market in 2026: threats and opportunities

Group 1: AI Boom and Market Performance - Nearly 75 percent of the S&P 500's return in 2025 has come from AI-linked stocks, indicating a significant AI boom in the market [1] - Major markets like the S&P 500, Nikkei, Shanghai Composite, Kospi, and Taiex delivered impressive returns, while India's Nifty underperformed with a 9.08 percent return [2][12] - The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022 was a transformative event, leading to a surge in AI investments among tech giants [2][13] Group 2: Valuation and Market Risks - Current valuations of AI stocks, such as Nvidia at a PE of 46, Microsoft at 35, and Apple at 37, are not considered bubble valuations compared to the tech boom of 2000 [5][6][7][13] - Concerns exist that significant investments by tech giants may not yield returns justifying their high valuations, potentially leading to a market crash [8][13] - A Bank of America survey indicated that 45 percent of global fund managers view the potential burst of the AI bubble as the biggest risk to global markets in 2026 [9][13] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - A correction in AI stocks is likely in 2026, with a potential decline of 10 to 20 percent, which could positively impact markets like India [10][12][13] - India's GDP growth rebounded impressively with 8.2 percent growth in Q2 FY26, and corporate earnings are projected to rise by 15 percent in FY27 [11][12] - Robust economic growth and improving corporate earnings in India, along with a correction in AI trade, could reverse FII outflows and lead to decent market returns in 2026 [12]