Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the global capital flow will benefit from the anticipated easing of policies abroad, particularly with the expected interest rate cuts in the US starting in September 2025, while domestic policies in China are expected to support steady growth through coordinated monetary and fiscal measures in 2026 [1] - The net profit growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 for 42 listed banks improved to 1.48%, despite a slight decline in revenue growth rate to 0.91% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance influenced by market conditions [1] - The total assets of listed banks grew by 9.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting continued high levels of expansion in scale [1] Group 2 - The estimated net interest margin for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 1.33%, showing a year-on-year decline of about 12 basis points, but the rate of decline is narrowing [2] - The non-performing loan ratio for listed banks was 1.21% at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease of 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter, indicating stable asset quality [2] - The average provision coverage ratio was 283.17%, down approximately 4.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the provision-to-loan ratio was 3.03%, reflecting a slight decline of 5 basis points [2] Group 3 - In 2026, it is expected that total policy measures will be moderately strengthened due to deepening external environmental changes and prominent supply-demand imbalances, with a slight increase in the overall fiscal deficit anticipated [3] - The banking sector's overall scale growth in 2026 may see a slight decline, but net interest margins are expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in interest income growth [4] - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with credit costs having already decreased to low levels, suggesting that future provisions will contribute less to performance [4]
万联证券：高股息风格仍有阶段性机会 银行板块仍具有配置价值
智通财经网·2025-12-18 08:17