IMF驻华首席代表Marshall Mills：上调中国经济增长预期，预计2025年为5%，2026年为4.5%

Core Insights - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast to 5% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, driven by strong export performance and effective fiscal stimulus measures [3][6] - China contributes approximately 30% to global growth, providing a favorable environment to address its own challenges [3][6] Economic Development Path - Three core recommendations were made to address domestic imbalances and deflationary pressures: 1. Implement a more expansionary macroeconomic policy mix, prioritizing the strengthening of the social security system to boost consumer confidence [3][6] 2. Accelerate household registration system reforms, which are expected to increase consumption by 3 percentage points of GDP in the medium term [3][6] 3. Reduce public investment and industrial policies for specific enterprises and sectors, allowing market forces to allocate resources, improve productivity, and save fiscal funds [3][6] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are suggested to enhance medium-term growth potential, including: 1. Reducing regulatory burdens and lowering domestic trade barriers, particularly in the service sector, to create a fair competitive environment for various enterprises [3][6] 2. Leveraging digital infrastructure to tap into artificial intelligence benefits while mitigating labor market misalignments and new financial risks [3][6] Debt Management - Emphasis on prudently resolving high debt issues, particularly focusing on restructuring unsustainable local government debt [4][7] - Strengthening financial sector regulation and promoting fiscal transparency reforms to build a robust risk defense [4][7] Long-term Economic Impact - If substantial progress is made in the aforementioned priority areas, China's GDP could potentially increase by an additional 2.5% by 2030, creating 18 million jobs and alleviating inflationary pressures [4][7]