邦达亚洲:市场的避险情绪重燃 黄金小幅收涨

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that there is room for interest rate cuts due to a weakening job market, suggesting a "steady and gradual" approach to lowering rates to neutral levels [1][6] - Waller emphasized that the current interest rates are 50 to 100 basis points above neutral levels and stated that there is no need for urgent rate cuts, allowing for a moderate pace of adjustments [1][6] - He noted that inflation is under control and is not expected to accelerate, with predictions of a continued decline in inflation over the coming months [1][6] Group 2: CFO Survey and Economic Confidence - A recent survey conducted by the Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, and Duke University's Fuqua School of Business revealed that CFOs expect an average price increase of 4.2% by 2026 [2][7] - The survey indicated a decline in corporate confidence regarding their own growth and the overall U.S. economy in the fourth quarter, with trade risks still viewed as a primary concern [2][7] - It was highlighted that inflation pressures may be more persistent than anticipated by policymakers, suggesting that the current inflation rate, which is nearly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target, may not decrease smoothly in the short term [2][7] Group 3: Market Data and Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. November CPI year-on-year unadjusted, initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for December [2][8] - The upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also significant events to monitor [2][8]