盈透证券逆势唱衰美股！标普500明年底将跌至6500点

Group 1 - Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, sets a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a cautious outlook compared to other bullish forecasts on Wall Street, suggesting a decline of about 3% from current levels [1] - Historical trends play a significant role in Sosnick's analysis, particularly the impact of presidential term cycles, noting that bear markets have historically occurred in the second year of a president's term [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the challenges faced by new Federal Reserve chairs, citing historical examples of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, who encountered market tests early in their tenures [1] Group 2 - Broadcom's recent market performance reflects Sosnick's concerns, as its stock price fell approximately 5% despite a strong earnings report, indicating that individual stocks may struggle under current market pressures even with solid fundamentals [2] - Interactive Brokers is one of the few Wall Street firms with a bearish outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026, contrasting with other firms that maintain a positive consensus driven by AI investment trends and easing monetary policies [2] - UBS forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 7300 points by June 2026 and further rise to 7700 points by December 2026, supported by economic resilience and ongoing AI investment [2] Group 3 - Citigroup sets a year-end target of 7700 points for the S&P 500, citing broadening corporate earnings growth and deepening AI themes, while also acknowledging potential volatility [3] - Morgan Stanley predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points in the next year, while HSBC sets a target of 7500 points, expecting a second consecutive year of double-digit gains driven by AI investments [4] - Barclays projects a target of 7400 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, highlighting strong performance from large tech stocks despite sluggish macroeconomic growth [4]