1218热点追踪：双焦带动黑色走高，反弹持续性如何？

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the significant increase in coking coal prices, driven by the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" and the anticipation of policy changes that may elevate dual-coke prices in the short term [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - On December 18, the main coking coal contract rose over 4%, positively impacting the coal chemical and black products sectors [3][7]. - The newly published benchmark levels include coal consumption for coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas processes, aiming to align with advanced efficiency indicators and strict pollutant emission requirements [3][7]. - Recent policies have emphasized "anti-involution," which is expected to raise dual-coke prices, leading to a short-term rebound in the market [3][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices for various coal types have seen adjustments, with Shanxi Linfen region's肥原煤 (S4, G95, recovery 35-40) decreasing by 21-49 yuan to a factory price of 719-760 yuan/ton [3][7]. - Prices for coal at Ganqimaodu port showed a decline, with Mongolian 5 raw coal priced at 919 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan) and Mongolian 3 premium coal at 1035 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) [3][7]. - Supply remains tight due to frequent safety inspections and the completion of annual production tasks, with many companies focusing on depleting existing inventories [3][7]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for coking coal has weakened as steel mills undergo maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production [3][7]. - Although coking steel inventories are at low levels, limited profits have resulted in a lack of substantial replenishment plans from downstream sectors [3][7].