加息即是“绝响”？周五之后，日本央行或长时间关闭紧缩大门

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise short-term interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, amid pressures from market forces and political dynamics [1][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The anticipated interest rate hike is a response to rising bond yields, which have reached an 18-year high due to actions by "bond vigilantes" [1][8]. - This will be the second rate increase this year, with a 25 basis point adjustment [1][8]. Group 2: Economic Context - The economic plan of Prime Minister Sanna Hayashi, known as "Hayashi Economics," relies heavily on low interest rates and increased deficit spending [1][8]. - Japan's economy contracted by 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, highlighting the challenges faced by the government and the central bank [4][11]. Group 3: Historical Precedents - The current situation mirrors past experiences under former Bank of Japan governors, particularly Toshihiko Fukui, who faced similar dilemmas and had to reverse rate hikes after economic downturns [2][9]. - The previous governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, left a challenging legacy for the current governor, Kazuo Ueda, who has been cautious in policy adjustments [3][11]. Group 4: Future Risks - There are concerns that if GDP growth stagnates further by 2026, Ueda may face significant political backlash, as central bank leaders often become scapegoats for economic issues [5][12]. - Geopolitical tensions, including trade wars and regional conflicts, pose additional risks to Japan's economic stability [6][12]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Experts acknowledge that over 25 years of zero interest rates have hindered necessary economic reforms and innovation in Japan [13]. - The current economic strategy does not adequately address competitiveness or the need for structural changes in the labor market and corporate governance [13].