经济数据发布日程恢复正常11月通胀率料仍高于美联储目标

Core Insights - The upcoming inflation data report for November is expected to show a year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 3.1%, which remains above the Federal Reserve's target [1][5] - The core Consumer Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is also anticipated to rise by 3.1% year-on-year [2][6] - The November report will be the first official inflation report since September, as the October report was canceled due to the government shutdown [3][7] Economic Context - The November CPI and core CPI will not include month-on-month changes due to the adjustments caused by the government shutdown [3][7] - The report signifies the end of the adjusted release schedule for key economic data, returning to a regular timetable following a 43-day government shutdown earlier this year [3][7] - The November non-farm payroll report indicated job growth exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate has risen to a four-year high [3][7] Market Expectations - LPL Financial's chief economist, Jeffrey Roach, suggests that the current inflation rate is above target but expects this to be temporary, with easing price pressures anticipated in the coming months [8] - Economists from Bank of America predict that commodity inflation will remain sticky due to tariff policies, while service-related inflation may moderate due to healthcare factors [8] - The mixed inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current monetary policy stance during the January meeting, with a 25% probability of a rate cut next month [4][8]