如何破解需求不足？张斌：短期内快速扩大投资

Core Insights - The article discusses the issue of insufficient demand in the economy, highlighting three main causes: the phenomenon is related to the development stage of the economy, it is triggered by specific events such as asset price bubbles and international financial crises, and it stems from a mismatch between spending and income within the economic system [2][6]. Group 1: Characteristics of Insufficient Demand - Insufficient demand has four significant characteristics that inform policy-making: 1. The causes are complex and multifaceted, involving both long-term structural issues and short-term cyclical factors, making it impossible to address each underlying cause individually [3][6]. 2. It represents a market failure where individual spending cuts and corporate investment reductions lead to overall economic deterioration, necessitating external intervention [3][6]. 3. Fast variables dominate the downward trend, with rapid adjustments in investment and credit having a more direct impact on economic performance [3][6]. 4. The destructive nature of insufficient demand is highlighted by historical examples such as the Great Depression in the U.S. and Japan's "lost two decades," indicating long-term negative effects if not addressed promptly [3][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address insufficient demand, several core recommendations are proposed: 1. The government should step outside market logic and actively increase spending to improve income across various sectors, thereby reversing market expectations [4][9]. 2. Focus on fast variables like investment to stimulate consumption, as consumption is a slow variable that cannot be significantly boosted in the short term [4][9]. 3. Prioritize breaking the negative cycle of insufficient demand, concentrating efforts on this issue rather than attempting to address multiple problems simultaneously [5][9]. - The essence of resolving insufficient demand lies in disrupting the self-reinforcing negative cycle, with policies needing to target fast variables like investment and credit with greater intensity than market expectations [5][9].