中信证券明明:明年消费补贴或转向服务商品和基建投资
Cai Jing Wang·2025-12-18 09:22

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Ming Ming, emphasizes the need to optimize consumption subsidies in 2026, suggesting a shift from durable goods to service products and infrastructure investments to stimulate consumer demand [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Subsidies - The focus for next year will be on further stimulating consumption, with potential adjustments in the categories and directions of subsidies [1][2]. - The previous success of the "old-for-new" policy contributed to strong consumption in the first half of the year, but its impact diminished in the second half as the quota was exhausted [2]. - There is a suggestion to explore subsidies for service products and infrastructure, such as sports facilities and theaters, to enhance the effectiveness of investments in human capital [2]. Group 2: Income Subsidies - The introduction of income subsidies, such as maternity and preschool education subsidies, has been a positive step, and there is potential for increasing the scale of these subsidies [3]. - Consideration is being given to whether urban and rural pension levels can be increased, which would be linked to overall resident income [3].