国元国际：给予神威药业(02877)“买入”评级 目标价10.04港元

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guoyuan International indicates that Shenwei Pharmaceutical (02877) is making significant progress in the innovative research and development of traditional Chinese medicine, particularly with its core product, Selotong Capsules, which has completed Phase III clinical trials and is expected to be approved in 2026 and launched in 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: R&D Progress - The innovative drug Selotong Capsules is advancing smoothly, with multiple research and clinical projects progressing well. The R&D expenses for the first half of 2025 amounted to RMB 50.37 million, accounting for 3.0% of revenue [2]. - Selotong Capsules, developed using modern innovative technology, targets vascular dementia, which is the second most common cause of dementia after Alzheimer's disease. The market potential is significant, with an expected increase in dementia patients in China surpassing 10 million by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 2.415 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. Revenue breakdown includes: injection products at RMB 786 million (down 23.6%), soft capsules at RMB 337 million (down 13.7%), granules at RMB 391 million (down 14.5%), and traditional Chinese medicine formula granules at RMB 726 million (down 11.8%) [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 decreased to 72.2% from 75.3% in the same period last year, primarily due to rising procurement costs and price pressures from national procurement policies. However, the net profit margin increased from 30.0% to 37.2% due to a 20.7% decrease in sales and distribution costs and a 12.9% reduction in administrative expenses [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company's product structure is expected to optimize with the continuous launch of new drugs. The proportion of oral products is 65.8%, while injection products account for 34.2%, indicating a reasonable product structure and enhanced risk resistance [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 3.84 billion, RMB 4.11 billion, and RMB 4.60 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 929 million, RMB 1.011 billion, and RMB 1.138 billion. The target price is set at HKD 10.04, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8 times for 2026, with a current dividend yield of 6.1% [4].