刘煜辉：当AI Scaling撞上天花板，谁在真正兑现技术红利？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market should take on the new mission of global asset pricing for the "East Great Governance Era," moving away from passive mapping of the "West Great" valuation system to establish an independent asset pricing framework [1][5][10]. Group 1: Industrial Advantages - The East Great (东大) has unparalleled advantages in implementation capabilities and a complete industrial ecosystem, particularly in the AI sector, where the majority of hardware manufacturing and supply chain integration for end devices (such as smartphones and PCs) is concentrated in China [3][7]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, China has formed a closed-loop production capacity, accounting for over 60% of the global market share, covering everything from battery materials to complete vehicles [3][7]. - The East Great also leads in green energy infrastructure, including solar, wind, and ultra-high voltage power grids, challenging traditional fossil energy paths [3][7]. Group 2: Future Asset Premiums - Industries embodying craftsmanship and national strength should enjoy global asset premiums in the future, while the West Great (西大) is increasingly positioned as a mere technology blueprint provider [5][9]. - The Scaling Law supporting the AI narrative, which states that model performance improves with increased computing power, data, and parameter scale, may hit physical limits around 2026-2027, potentially leading to a rapid decline in value [5][9]. Group 3: Market Pricing Power - The capital market's pricing power must align with the shift in industrial realities, as the future premium will belong to the most solid production capacities [10]. - The ability to transform technology into something that is affordable and indispensable for millions will determine who holds the anchor of value [10].