中国汽车流通协会：预计12月份全月乘用车终端销量235万辆左右

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is expected to see a moderate recovery in December, driven by year-end promotions and the release of pre-holiday purchasing demand, although significant "tail-end" effects are not anticipated due to various factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Projections - December's terminal sales volume for passenger cars is projected to be around 2.35 million units, reflecting a stable year-on-year performance [2]. - The overall retail volume for passenger cars in 2025 is expected to reach 23.55 million units, remaining flat compared to 2024 [2]. - The end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy is anticipated to create a temporary sales peak in late December, but the overall market is unlikely to experience a significant "tail-end" effect [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly boosted automotive consumption, with over 11.2 million vehicles replaced under the trade-in program, accounting for more than half of the total retail volume this year [3]. - Consumer sentiment is currently cautious, with many holding off on purchases due to tightening trade-in subsidy policies and the impending reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [2][3]. - Various local governments have introduced diverse purchase subsidy policies to stimulate demand, which may accelerate purchasing decisions, especially among first-time buyers [8][12]. Group 3: Sales and Inventory Trends - In the first half of December, sales increased by 1.5% compared to the same period in November, although there was a significant decline of 23.7% compared to the second half of November [12]. - Inventory levels decreased by 10.9% in the first half of December compared to the end of November, indicating a faster sales pace as dealers respond to year-end pressures [16].