价格战终结？光伏产业链全线挺价！光伏出口止跌，龙头盈利拐点已现

Industry Overview - China's photovoltaic product export prices have stabilized, showing signs of improvement in the industry's profitability and a reduction in losses, with a total loss of 31.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 5.618 billion yuan from the previous quarter, a reduction of approximately 46.7% [1] - The average price of photovoltaic modules increased by 1.34% year-on-year in November 2025, while the average factory price of polysilicon rose by 34.4% year-on-year [1] - The supply-side adjustments have led to a significant decrease in polysilicon production for the first time since 2013 and a decline in wafer production for the first time since 2009 [1] Market Trends - TrendForce reported that the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a price stabilization trend due to inventory digestion and procurement efforts, with polysilicon prices rising to 65 yuan/kg and a strong price rebound in the wafer segment driven by inventory clearance [1] - The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a genuine upward price movement for modules as seasonal demand recovers and upstream cost pressures are fully transmitted [1] Company Insights Silicon Material Segment - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) is the global leader in silicon materials with a production capacity exceeding 300,000 tons and a market share of over 35%, leading the industry by 10-15% in cost advantages [3] - TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089) employs an integrated coal-electricity-silicon model, achieving a net profit of 6.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with photovoltaic business accounting for 45% [3] Wafer Segment - LONGi Green Energy (601012) is a dual leader in wafers and modules, with a global market share exceeding 30% and a unit cost reduction of 15% [4] - TCL Zhonghuan (002129) holds over 60% market share in 210mm large-size wafers, with a target production capacity of 180GW for 2025 [4] Cell Segment - Aiko Solar Energy (600732) leads globally in ABC cell technology with a mass production efficiency of 27.2%, achieving a 400% year-on-year increase in ABC module shipments [5] - Junda Co., Ltd. (002865) has a leading N-type cell technology, with a net profit growth of nearly 400% in Q3 2025 [6] Module Segment - JinkoSolar (688223) shipped 61.85GW of modules in the first three quarters of 2025, ranking first globally, with a positive gross margin in Q3 [7] - Trina Solar (688599) achieved a shipment of 45GW in the first three quarters, focusing on 210mm large-size and HJT technology [8] - JA Solar (002459) shipped 35GW of modules, maintaining an 80% capacity utilization rate in its U.S. and Malaysia plants [8] - Canadian Solar (688472) shipped 25GW of modules, with a net profit of 989 million yuan in Q3 2025 [8] Inverter Segment - Sungrow Power Supply (300274) holds a 35% global market share in inverters, with a net profit of 11.881 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.34% [9] - Ginlong Technologies (300763) is the third-largest inverter manufacturer globally, with over 100GW of cumulative shipments [9] Auxiliary Materials Segment - Flat Glass Group (601865) is a leading player in photovoltaic glass with a 32% global market share, reporting a net profit of 638 million yuan in Q3 2025 [11] - Foster (603806) leads in photovoltaic encapsulation films with a 55% market share, achieving a net profit of 668 million yuan in Q3 2025 [11] Equipment Segment - Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751) is a leader in HJT battery equipment with over 80% market share in screen printing equipment, with order amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2025 [12] - Jiejia Weichuang (300724) covers all technology routes in photovoltaic battery equipment, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 116.26% in 2024 [12]