OEXN:贵金属格局重塑

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is undergoing a structural re-evaluation driven by multiple macroeconomic and industrial forces, with gold nearing historical highs and silver continuously setting records, indicating a reallocation of assets by investors in response to economic slowdown expectations, changes in liquidity environment, and long-term uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Silver has experienced a remarkable surge of nearly 130% since 2025, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 65% increase, reflecting a market re-pricing of silver's dual attributes, transitioning from a "high-volatility precious metal" to a more strategically significant asset class [1][4]. - The rising unemployment rate has strengthened expectations for future easing policies, highlighting the value of precious metals as a hedge, with silver's role as a risk buffer increasing in a context of marginal economic growth slowdown [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Structure - A persistent global silver supply deficit has become a long-term variable, with annual silver production remaining around 813 million ounces, while industrial demand continues to expand, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, transportation electrification, and computing infrastructure [1][4]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - The silver futures trading volume is approaching that of gold, indicating a significant shift in market structure, which is viewed as a signal of structural change rather than short-term speculation [2][5]. - The demand for silver in industrial applications, such as photovoltaics, energy storage, electric vehicles, and data center construction, creates a continuous and rigid demand, enhancing price stability compared to gold, which primarily serves as a store of value [2][5]. Group 4: Liquidity and Market Environment - Ongoing interest rate cuts and asset purchase programs are improving the financial environment, with historical evidence suggesting that easing cycles tend to elevate the overall valuation of precious metals [3][6]. - The current precious metals market dynamics are not merely driven by short-term sentiment but are the result of macroeconomic policies, industrial upgrades, and market structure interactions, with the roles of silver and gold in the global asset system being redefined [3][6].