中央经济工作会议为明年定下哪些基调？

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized a shift in macroeconomic policy, upgrading fiscal policy to "more proactive" and monetary policy to "moderately loose," marking the first simultaneous easing since 2011 [1] - The conference highlighted the need for a flexible and efficient monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The necessity for policy intervention is underscored by three hard indicators: persistent demand gaps, evident deflationary pressures, and fiscal revenue challenges, indicating a need for stronger policy measures [2][3] Group 2 - The conference aims to break the negative cycle through a combination of fiscal expansion to boost nominal GDP and monetary easing to lower real interest rates, targeting sustained economic recovery [3] - The fiscal deficit and debt levels will be managed flexibly, with potential adjustments to the fiscal deficit rate expected to rise to 3.5%-3.8% by 2026, depending on economic conditions [4] - The transition from broad subsidies to targeted support in fiscal policy is anticipated, focusing on key sectors such as equipment upgrades and urban renewal projects, with an estimated 300 billion yuan allocated for interest subsidies to stimulate investment [5] Group 3 - The conference reiterated the importance of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range, especially in the context of potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is characterized by a combination of central government leverage, bank interest rate reductions, and stable expectations, aligning with the conference's goals of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [7] - Investors are advised to focus on opportunities arising from fiscal expansion while being cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [7]