标普信评：预计2026年银行业稳字当头 需关注盈利压力和局部风险

Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the banking industry in 2026 is stable, with a focus on profitability pressure and localized risks, despite a steady growth in scale and sufficient capital [1] Group 1: Credit Quality and Scale Growth - Credit quality is expected to remain stable in 2026 [1] - The average asset growth rate in the industry is projected to be around 8% [1] Group 2: Capital Adequacy - The Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is anticipated to maintain around 12% [1][2] - The stability of capital structure is supported by the issuance of CNY 500 billion in special government bonds and local governments issuing special bonds to support small and medium-sized banks [2] Group 3: Profitability - Profitability is expected to remain under pressure due to declining net interest margins and rising credit costs in retail loans [3] - The decline in net interest margins is projected to be narrower in 2026, estimated between 5 to 10 basis points [3] Group 4: Asset Quality - The overall bad debt ratio is expected to decrease steadily, with sufficient provisions in place [3] - There are concerns regarding the asset quality of the retail sector in regional small and medium-sized banks, which could impact their risk mitigation capabilities [3] Group 5: Liquidity and Deposits - The stability of deposits and liquidity conditions is expected to be maintained [1]