“十五五”时期全国城镇住房需求总量约49.8亿平方米

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total urban housing demand in China is estimated to be approximately 4.98 billion square meters, driven by new urban population growth and improving housing needs [1] - The report highlights that the demand composition includes 1.61 billion square meters from the increase of approximately 36.5 million urban residents, 2.03 billion square meters from improved living standards, and 1.34 billion square meters from demolition and renovation needs over the next five years [1] - The expected annual average sales area of newly built commercial residential properties is projected to be between 700 million and 800 million square meters, based on a conversion rate of 70%-80% of the total demand [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the next five years suggests that while the peak of new housing market volume has passed, there remains significant potential in high-capacity cities due to ongoing urban population inflow and unmet improvement housing needs [2] - It is noted that by 2025, the new housing sales scale will have dropped to a central level, with the housing demand characteristics shifting from "just need" driven to "improvement" dominated [2] - Short-term pressures on real estate sales volume and prices are anticipated, but as market inventory gradually decreases and social expectations recover, the real estate sector is expected to gradually emerge from a low phase in the latter part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]