CNBC·2025-12-18 11:45Core Insights - Eli Lilly's obesity pill, orforglipron, has shown promising results in maintaining weight loss for patients transitioning from injections like Zepbound and Wegovy in a late-stage trial [1][3][4] Group 1: Trial Results - The phase three trial involved over 300 patients who had previously taken Wegovy or Zepbound for 72 weeks, followed by a 52-week period where they were randomized to receive either the pill or a placebo [4] - Patients switching from Wegovy regained an average of only 2 pounds, while those switching from Zepbound regained about 11 pounds by the end of the trial [5] - The pill met its primary goal of demonstrating superior weight loss maintenance compared to placebo among patients who had plateaued while on injections [4] Group 2: FDA Approval and Market Potential - Eli Lilly has filed for FDA approval of orforglipron, which has received a priority review voucher that could expedite the review process [2] - Analysts suggest that positive trial results could allow Eli Lilly to capture market share from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products, potentially impacting the competitive landscape [7] Group 3: Safety and Tolerability - The safety profile of the pill was consistent with previous studies, with common side effects being mild-to-moderate gastrointestinal issues [8] - Discontinuation rates due to side effects were 4.8% for those switching from Wegovy and 7.2% for those switching from Zepbound [9] Group 4: Market Forecast - Analysts predict that oral medications will capture a 24% share of the global weight loss drug market by 2030, valued at approximately $95 billion [12] - Eli Lilly's pill is expected to hold a 60% share of the daily oral segment, translating to around $13.6 billion, while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is projected to have a 21% share [13]